Karl Denninger has a significant post over at the Market Ticker on why everyone should have not one but two modern semi-automatic rifles with several standard capacity (20-30 rounds) magazines.  Among other points he examines the mathematical probability that any given individual American citizen will have need of them during their lifetimes.  I can’t fault his math (never my strong suit to begin with, you check it and let me know), and it is higher than I would have thought.  That is especially true now that the wild-eyed partisans of the Dark Temple of Socialism see their gains of the last 20 years slipping away under the current administration’s knife.

Let’s not mince words: Eric Swalwell is advocating for Civil War.

Instead, we should ban possession of military-style semiautomatic assault weapons, we should buy back such weapons from all who choose to abide by the law, and we should criminally prosecute any who choose to defy it by keeping their weapons. The ban would not apply to law enforcement agencies or shooting clubs.

….

The Parkland teens have taught us there is no right more important than every student’s right to come home after class. The right to live is supreme over any other.

Right here, Mr. Sawlwell is advocating for a civil war — right now.

He is in fact advocating for millions of murders.

He is claiming as justification exactly the same argument made for keeping slaves — that some people are superior to others.

Mr. Swalwell claims that the right to live is supreme over any other.

The problem is that without disarming everyone — including every weapon, and that includes the police, he is declaring that this right only exists for certain people and not others and he intends to murder anyone who disagrees with them.

Marxist fanatics have always considered themselves to be morally superior and have no problem not only saying so, not only jamming that putative moral superiority down everybody’s throat, but using everything from intimidation to extermination to silence anyone who dares so much as hint otherwise.  I will go so far as to declare that Marxism is a religion that thrives, can only thrive, on human sacrifice.  This is the principal tenet it shares with Islam.  Whose lives they cannot blight they must destroy.

What is the risk of, for example, contracting cancer during your lifetime?  The answer is about 38.5%.

What is the risk of needing an AR-15 to survive a severe civil conflict (defined as revolution or civil war) during your 62 adult years, given the history of such conflicts on the landmass known today as United States since people of white European-ancestry have been in permanent residence upon same?

The math is simple: 1 – (cumulative odds of NOT having it happen over 62 years), or in arithmetic notation 1 – (0.9949 ^ 62)

Ready for the result?

It’s 27.17% — higher than your house flooding if you live in a 100 year flood plain.

What if we keep taking in immigrants who refuse to assimilate and we become more socialist much as Europe has done over the last several hundred years — and our risk in fact looks like theirs based on the last 100 years?  What is the risk you will need that AR-15 during your adult lifetime in that case, which I think is a fair argument on the risk we take today given that we refuse to secure our borders and expel those who are here illegally now, never mind taking in “refugees” who are not required to demonstrate their respect for and intent to honor our Constitutional protections?

Sitting down?

71.4%

Unlike Obamacare which insists that you can buy medical insurance even after you’ve been diagnosed with a medical problem you could not otherwise afford to alleviate, you won’t be able to buy a gun, let alone a suitable gun, with which to defend yourself once the road apples hit the fan.  We were blessed with Constitution Care, which, while providing for the possibility of catastrophe, is aimed at pro-acively preventing it.

Indeed it is likely that the pre-NFA state of the law prior to the 1930s is why America has a risk of such war or revolution that is one quarter of that of other developed and similar cultures and nations — specifically, the entirety of Europe, Central and South America, Africa and most of Asia.  That’s the vast majority of land-mass on this planet.

But in today’s world with people like Eric Swalwell in Congress and our de-facto refusal to demand that any who wish to immigrate to the United States do so only under the expectation and belief that they agree with the Constitution in all respectsthe risk in the United States of you needing that rifle today is much more-likely to be akin to that of someone who lives in Europe.

You don’t need one AR-15, in short.

Every adult in fact needs two or more of them because during your adult life you’re odds on to experience the very unfortunate set of events that will require you own and have a working one, right now, or you and all of those who you love will be dead.

We all owe God a death, but there’s no reason to hurry it.  In the same way all civilizations die, but there’s no reason to allow Commie fanatics to hurry ours along.  That is why every initiative coming from the Neo-Marxist dominated Left MUST be opposed.  Everything they propose is designed to strangle our happiness, our liberty and, ultimately, our very lives.  You would never grant permission for someone who was strangling you to squeeze a little more on the grounds that, well, it’s not really enough to quite kill me, but really, that’s it, no more.  We’ve been doing that for sixty years, how long do you propose to let it go on?

They will take everything if you let them.  So don’t you let them.